One Decision... Once a Day... That's all it really takes to profit in both up AND down markets.
If the "Credit Crisis Bear Market" of 2008 taught investors anything, it was that a long-only approach to the market is no longer sufficient. It is our humble opinion that no investor wants to remain invested in the stock market during brutal declines. And why should they? Today, there are tools available to all investors that can profit from declines in stock prices.
In short, we believe investors MUST have the ability to make money in both rising and falling markets. To that end, we offer The Daily Decision Service.
About the Daily Decision Service
The Daily Decision is designed to profit from both rising and falling markets. Our management strategy is very simple to define: We want to be fully invested in stock market indices (via ETF's) when stocks are rising and we want to be short the market (again, via easy to use exchange traded funds) when stocks are falling.
And since the model is updated every morning, it is our easiest service to follow -- it takes less than a minute each day to determine which side of the market to be on.
In addition, the Daily Decision is a live service run by full-time professional money managers providing you with real time trade alerts. So, fire your stock broker and dump those underperforming mutual funds. Let us help you start outperforming the stock market!
The Daily Decision Service provides members with three model portfolio alternatives to follow. Below is a summary comparing and contrasting the three models.
- Main Model: The Main Model in our Daily Decision Service is designed to be a "new age" market timing portfolio. The model portfolio has the ability to be long the market, short the market, or in a neutral - or cash - position. The Main Model utilizes the S&P 500 index for both long and short positions and a money market equivalent for the neutral position.
- Aggressive Model: By definition, the Aggressive model takes more risk. This is accomplished in two ways. First, instead of using the S&P 500 index, the model portfolio uses leveraged ETF's which are designed to double the performance of the underlying index on a daily basis. And unlike the Main Model, the Aggressive Model is not limited to the S&P 500 index as we have flexibility in which market index to utilize (S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, etc.) for each trade. Second, the Aggressive Model does not have a neutral - or cash - position. Thus, it is either long or short at all times.
- Hybrid Model: The Hybrid Model, as you might surmise, is a combination of the Main and Aggressive Models. The Hybrid Model will utilize the timing moves of the Main Model (long, short, or neutral) but then will use the leveraged indices of the Aggressive model. Thus, when on a "long" or "short" signal, the Hybrid will own the leveraged ETF's from the Aggressive Model. However, the model may also move to cash on a neutral signal from our Main model.
On a personal note, I'd like to let subscribers know that in my personal accounts, I allocate approximately one-third of my portfolio to the Daily Decision signals.
Let's Talk Daily Decision Performance
Although it has been a volatile time for the stock market recently, the performance of the Daily Decision service has been pretty good (if we do say so ourselves)...
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Those are NOT typos. The Daily Decision models have outperformed the S&P 500 Index by significant margins. (The Aggressive model outperformed by 6 to 1 in 2009 alone!)
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We Keep Things Simple
There's nothing fancy here... no options... no day trading... no complicated transactions. We tell you EXACTLY what and when we buy and EXACTLY when we sell. It really is that simple -- and it only takes a few minutes a week.
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So, do yourself (and your portfolio) a favor: Fire those mutual fund managers and try the Daily Decision instead!
Let's Talk Price
The Daily Decision is a "pro level" long/short strategy that can easily replace your broker and those mutual funds in your portfolio. In short, you can be your portfolio manager for just $699 a year! (Monthly and quarterly plans are also available.)
Long-Term Performance
Before we ever go "live" with the trading strategy, we insist that the management system be thoroughly tested - preferably in good markets, bad markets and everything in between. So, before we introduced our Daily Decision service, we asked the largest institutional research firm in the country to conduct an independent test of the system. Although no backtest is ever perfect (far from it!), what we're looking for is an indication of how the system could perform in different conditions. In short, based on the numbers below, we feel the system has impressive potential and we thought you might enjoy seeing the numbers.
Below is a summary of the system test results which formed the basis of our Daily Decision systems. Please note that the results below do not represent actual trading. However, the test does provide us with an indication of what we might be able to expect in varying market environments such as a bull market, a bear market, and that annoying "in between" type of environment.
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Perhaps the biggest positive to take note of is the long string of green numbers on the left side of the table. Frankly, this is the most exciting aspect of the system to me - NO DOWN YEARS!
Although the end result is impressive, the system isn't perfect by any stretch and there are some disappointments in some years. For example, 1992 and 1993 weren't great and I'm guessing I'd get some flak during 2003 and 2005. However, another key point to the system is to understand that when the market "trends" for a while, the system has displayed the ability to dramatically outperform the market indices.
Wishing you green screens in your investment endeavors,
David D. Moenning
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist
StateoftheMarkets.com
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The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of StateoftheMarkets and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.
The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
The information contained in our website and StateoftheMarkets publications is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.
Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.
The Daily Decision Models are model portfolios. The return calculations for the Main Model and Aggressive from 8/1/09 represent the implementation of the model portfolio strategies based on the trade alerts issued by the service. Returns from 3/6/09 through 7/31/09 represent the implementation of the model portfolio strategy based on the Daily Decision Model signals as published on the website. Return calculations prior to 3/6/2009 represent hypothetical system testing. Returns for the main model assume going long the S&P 500 on buy signals, short the S&P 500 on sell signals, and to cash on neutral signals. Returns for the Aggressive model assume going long Proshares Ultra Russell 2000 ETF on buy signals and short the ETF on sell signals up to 9/2/09 and then implementing the trade alerts thereafter. Returns for the Hybrid model through 8/30/09 mirror the Aggressive model transactions. From 8/30/09 through 9/24/09 the Hybrid model returns assume using the Main Model signals and the Aggressive model positions. Returns after 9/24/09 represent the implementation of the trade alerts thereafter. The return calculations for the Historical System Test are based on system testing from 1/1/1980 through 12/31/2008. From 1/1/1980 through 12/31/1986, historical test results used long-only modeling.
Hypothetical system testing and model portfolios do not represent actual trading. It should be noted that backtested results do not take into account payment of commissions or reinvestment of dividends, have inherent limitations, incorporates the benefit of hindsight in the development of the model, and are for informational purposes only.
Your actual results may differ from results reported for the model portfolio for many reasons, including, without limitation: (i) performance results for the model portfolio do not reflect trading commissions that you may or may not incur; (ii) performance results for the model portfolio do not account for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, that may affect your results; (iii) the securities chosen for the model portfolio may be volatile, and although the "purchase" or "sale" of a security in the model portfolio will not be made in the model portfolio until confirmation that the email alert has been sent to all subscribers, delivery delays and other factors may cause the price you obtain to differ substantially from the price at the time the alert was sent; and (iv) the prices of securities in the model portfolio at the point in time you begin subscribing to our service may be higher than such prices at the time such stocks or options were chosen for inclusion in the model portfolio.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index containing the stocks of 500 large-cap corporations, most of which are US companies. The index is the most notable of the many indices owned and maintained by Standard & Poor's, a division of McGraw-Hill. S&P 500 is used in reference not only to the index but also to the 500 companies that have their common stock included in the index. S&P 500 returns from 1980 through 2008 are "total return" and include the reinvestment of dividends.Investors cannot invest directly in the index.
Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
