The Daily Decision

The Daily Decision

One Decision... Once a Day... That's all it really takes to profit in both up AND down markets.

If the "Credit Crisis Bear Market" of 2008 taught investors anything, it was that a long-only approach to the market is no longer sufficient. It is our humble opinion that no investor wants to remain invested in the stock market during brutal declines. And why should they? Today, there are tools available to all investors that can profit from declines in stock prices.

In short, we believe investors MUST have the ability to make money in both rising and falling markets. To that end, we offer The Daily Decision Service.

Watch Daily Decision Manager Dave M. Walk You Through The Service

Introducing The NEW "Adaptive" Daily Decision Service

The Daily Decision has always been about managing the risk in the stock market. Our management strategy is very simple to define: We want to be fully invested in stock market indices (via ETF's) when stocks are rising and we want to reduce risk (or go short) when stocks are falling.

However, the NEW "Adaptive" Daily Decision timing system represents a dramatic upgrade to our original system. The new system is more active, more trend sensitive, is a multiple strategy system, adapts to changing environments, employs multiple timeframes, is 100% Rules-Driven, and most importantly, is more profitable!

For more information on how the system was designed, how it works, and the performance results, Download our Special Report on the All-New "Adaptive" Daily Decision market timing system.

The new system is quite robust, if we do say so ourselves. But see for yourself - below are the results of the system test for the new "adaptive" timing system.

Before we ever go "live" with the trading strategy, we insist that the management system be thoroughly tested - preferably in good markets, bad markets and everything in between. So, before we introduced our NEW Daily Decision system, we conducted a thorough test of the system. Although no backtest is ever perfect (far from it!), what we're looking for is an indication of how the system could perform in different conditions. In short, based on the numbers below, we feel the system has impressive potential and we thought you might enjoy seeing the numbers.

Below is a summary of the system test results of our Daily Decision systems. Please note that the results below do not represent actual trading. However, the test does provide us with an indication of what we might be able to expect in varying market environments such as a bull market, a bear market, and that annoying "in between" type of environment.

The NEW "Adaptive"
Daily Decision System
System Results 12/31/1996 - 9/15/2012
 


Year
The
Daily Decision

Main Model
The
Daily Decision

Hybrid
The
Daily Decision

Aggressive


S&P 500
1997 +13.10% +46.08% +97.09% +31.01%
1998 +53.90% +85.70% +170.47% +26.67%
1999 +39.48% +32.36% +70.39% +19.53%
2000 +28.17% +30.93% +63.29% -10.14%
2001 +26.65% +30.64% +64.94% -13.04%
2002 +24.37% +21.52% +40.48% -23.37%
2003 +32.07% +56.23% +104.53% +26.38%
2004 +13.26% +11.81% +26.86% +8.99%
2005 +1.82% +5.71% +7.26% +3.00%
2006 +16.05% +26.10% +47.34% +13.62%
2007 +20.73% +23.91% +46.63% +3.53%
2008 +44.63% +44.62% +92.78% -38.49%
2009 +31.90% +78.29% +107.12% +23.45%
2010 +14.39% +16.87% +39.73% +12.78%
2011 +9.69% +16.18% +24.83% -0.00%
2012  +10.98% +18.56% +30.33% +13.41%

Average
Annual
Compound
Return
Thru 2011
+23.08% +32.39% +60.11% +4.18%

Please see important disclosures at the end of this report relating to the limitations of backtested results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

While the system has been upgraded, the Daily Decision Service will still provide members with three model portfolio alternatives to follow. Below is a summary comparing and contrasting the three models.

  • Main Model: The Main Model in our Daily Decision Service is designed to be a "new age" market timing portfolio. The model portfolio has the ability to be long the market, short the market, or in a neutral - or cash - position. The Main Model utilizes the S&P 500 index for both long and short positions and a money market equivalent for the neutral position.

  • Aggressive Model: By definition, the Aggressive model takes more risk. This is accomplished primarily via the use of leveraged ETF's which are designed to double or triple the performance of the underlying index on a daily basis. When our Environment Model is bullish, the Aggressive Model will own a 3X long ETF designed to provide triple the daily return of the S&P 500. When the Environment Model is neutral, the Aggressive Model will either be in cash or utilize 2x long or short ETF's depending on the Short-Term Trend-Following signal. And when the Environment Model is negative, the Aggressive Model will own 2x short ETFs designed to provide twice the inverse return of the S&P 500.

  • Hybrid Model: The Hybrid Model, as you might surmise, is a combination of the Main and Aggressive Models. When our Environment Model is bullish, the Hybrid Model will own a 2X long ETF designed to provide triple the daily return of the S&P 500. When the Environment Model is neutral, the Hybrid Model will not utilize leverage and will either be long, short or in cash depending on the system's Short-Term Trend-Following signal. And when the Environment Model is negative, the Hybrid Model will own short ETFs designed to provide the inverse return of the S&P 500.

On a personal note, I'd like to let subscribers know that in my personal accounts, I allocate approximately 60% of my personal portfolio to the Daily Decision systems.

Sign Up or Take a Free Trial of the NEW Daily Decision Service Today!
(Even if you've tried the Daily Decision before, you owe it to yourself to check out the New service today!)

Let's Talk Daily Decision Live Performance

Although we believe the ALL-NEW system is a significant upgrade, the live performance of the Daily Decision service hasn't been too bad (if we do say so ourselves)...

Daily Decision Tactical Timing Services
Live Performance Results

For The Period 12/31/2008 - 3/28/2013
  Main
Model
Aggressive
Model
Hybrid
Model
S&P 500
Cumulative Total Return: +118.77% +318.54% +350.52%  +73.72%
Average Annual Return: +19.87% /Yr +37.59% /Yr +41.78% /Yr  +12.09% /Yr

Those are NOT typos. The Daily Decision models have outperformed the S&P 500 Index by significant margins. (The Aggressive model outperformed by 6 to 1 in 2009 alone!)

Sign Up or Take a Free Trial of the NEW Daily Decision Service Today!
(Even if you've tried the Daily Decision before, you owe it to yourself to check out the New service today!)

We Keep Things Simple

There's nothing fancy here... no options... no day trading... no complicated transactions. We tell you EXACTLY what and when we buy and EXACTLY when we sell. It really is that simple -- and it only takes a few minutes a week.

So, do yourself (and your portfolio) a favor: Fire those mutual fund managers and try the ALL-NEW Daily Decision instead!

What Our Subscribers Are Saying

Don't just take our word that the Daily Decision is a superb service. Here's what our subscribers are saying...

    I have spent many years studying and trying other trading systems and this one is the best. The simplicity...accuracy....and results of your system are unparalleled. I am a member for life...
    Bob A.

    I currently work as a financial advisor... Last year I started to add your technical indicators into the portfolios and have been very pleased with the additional risk management.... Thank you very much for the information that you provide. I find everything you put out very useful.
    Chris M.

    You are providing a valuable service based on real world experience, professional, no hype, results-driven hard work. I was lucky to find your site
    Keith M.

    Keep up the great work - your Daily Decision is awesome!!
    Glenn Q.

    I am really enjoying the discipline of your market signals. Before I subscribed to your Daily Decision service, I was a bit of an options junkie, winning big sometimes, losing big other times. Stress level was high. Now I just relax and follow your signals... Thanks for sticking to your guns and protecting us from the whipsaw that's cost me so much in the past!
    Kris L.

    The information that you provide is wonderful!
    Rick E.

    I read your email alerts daily, I am a big believer in your systems...
    Cary H.

    I want you to know that I have developed a great amount of trust in your market timing abilities. I consider myself a relatively sophisticated investor and have applied my applied mathematics and computer science background to develop fairly sophisticated trading strategies and indicators. However I find it practically impossible to rigorously and systematically apply these trading strategies while remaining active in my profession (earth science modeling at NASA). Hence, I rely on your service to keep me informed of what I truly need to know among the overwhelming amount of financial news and to keep my investment accounts on the right side of the trend. Thank you for allowing me to sleep at night!
    C.L.K.

    Thank you...you have exceeded my expectation and I really appreciate it!
    Maria P.

    Thanks for your advice and your Daily Decision service. It helps enormously to be able to have a non-emotional simple system to CALL out a plan and when to BUY and when to sell to prevent me having a shaky hand.
    Brian S.

    I read a lot of financial news and information online, but your analysis and explanation for things is the best. Keep up the great work!!!!
    Michael M.

    With a quality organization such as yours and honest, performing services, and such a rate offer, how could I say anything but "Yes! Sign me up!"
    Richard M.

Let's Talk Price

The Daily Decision is a "pro level" market timing that can easily replace your broker and those mutual funds in your portfolio. In short, you can be your portfolio manager for just $695 a year! (Monthly and quarterly plans are also available.)

Wishing you green screens in your investment endeavors,

David D. Moenning
Founder and Chief Investment Strategist StateoftheMarkets.com


The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.

The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.

The information contained in our websites and publications is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered investment adviser with many states. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.

Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.

The Daily Decision Models are model portfolios. The return calculations for the Historical System Test are based on system testing from 12/31/1996 through 4/13/2012.

Hypothetical system testing and model portfolios do not represent actual trading. It should be noted that backtested results do not take into account payment of commissions or reinvestment of dividends, have inherent limitations, incorporates the benefit of hindsight in the development of the system, and are for informational purposes only.

The backtested results for the main model assume going long the S&P 500 index on buy signals, to cash on STTF neutral signals and short the S&P 500 on sell signals. We assumed no interest was earned on the cash position, no commissions were paid on trades, and no dividends or capital gains were earned during the testing period. The results for the hybrid model assume going 2X long the S&P 500 index when the environment model is on a buy, long and short the S&P 500 index on STTF signals, going to cash on STTF neutral signals, and short the S&P 500 on sell signals. The results for the aggressive model assume going 3X long the S&P 500 index when the environment model is on a buy, 2X long and short the S&P 500 index on STTF signals, going to cash on STTF neutral signals, and 2X short the S&P 500 on sell signals.

Your actual results may differ from results reported for the model portfolio for many reasons, including, without limitation: (a) performance results for the model portfolio do not reflect trading commissions that you may or may not incur; (b) performance results for the model portfolio do not account for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, that may affect your results; (c) the securities chosen for the model portfolio may be volatile, and although the "purchase" or "sale" of a security in the model portfolio will not be made in the model portfolio until confirmation that the email alert has been sent to all subscribers, delivery delays and other factors may cause the price you obtain to differ substantially from the price at the time the alert was sent; and (d) the prices of securities in the model portfolio at the point in time you begin subscribing to our service may be higher than such prices at the time such stocks or options were chosen for inclusion in the model portfolio.

The S&P 500 is a stock market index containing the stocks of 500 large-cap corporations, most of which are US companies. The index is the most notable of the many indices owned and maintained by Standard & Poor's, a division of McGraw-Hill. S&P 500 is used in reference not only to the index but also to the 500 companies that have their common stock included in the index. S&P 500 returns shown in this report are based on the cash index only and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Investors cannot invest directly in the index.

Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.