
The Wall Street Journal recently conducted a survey of 53 economists in order to get their take on the economic recovery. The results? Economists believe that the US is in for a sustained period of tepid growth and high unemployment.
On average, economists said that the unemployment rate was likely to remain above 9% through June 2011. They expected that the economy would add only 136,000 jobs per month over the next year, an estimate which was down from the 157,000 forecast in the July survey. This revision shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, though, following a disappoint July employment report and continued increases in jobless claims.
Of the risks the economy was facing, “too few jobs, too little wage income and too little consumer spending” were the most popular responses. Other responses included deflation, inflation, government cutbacks, and another downturn in the housing market.
Regarding growth, the economists projected an inflation-adjusted growth rate of 2.5% for Q3, and 2.9% for 2011. This projection was revised down from 3.1%, the projection 3 months ago.
It is pretty clear that the economy isn’t in the best of shape. Worries about the recovery led the Fed to announce that it was purchasing Treasuries on Tuesday. While monetary policy is being pushed to the limit in hopes of bolstering the economy, fiscal policy has been questionable and particularly ineffective. The surveyed economists have had enough.
"The economy needs government to get out of the way," said Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities.
30 out of 48 economists who answered the question said that the economy does not need additional fiscal or monetary stimulus. However, they also agreed that the Bush-era tax cuts, which are set to expire at the end of the year (unless Congress acts quickly), should be extended. 32 said that extensions are necessary, while 11 said extensions for people making less than $250,000 would be the best option. Only 3 were opposed to extensions.
While the majority believed the Bush-era tax cuts should be extended temporarily in order to aid the struggling recovery, 23 economists suggested that the extension should be offset with spending cuts or other taxes due to concerns over the deficit. While concerns over the deficit linger, 28 economists believe that the US will not introduce a consumption tax over the next decade, citing strong political pressure against such tax as their basis.
Some economists believe that a net tax - the VAT would be a viable option in bringing down long-term deficits. Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust said that, “a VAT is a clever way to increase tax revenues paid by middle- and lower-income households without increasing their marginal income-tax rates.”
While the economists’ forecasts were far from bright, at least nobody mentioned anything about negative growth or the “R” word. Glass half full, right?