Weekly Signal: Moderately Positive
Sneak Peek: The Daily Decision Service
On occasion, TSP allows all visitors to "sneak a peek" inside one of our portfolios. This is not a promotional piece on the service, but rather a live look into the service's latest report to subscribers. Below is this week's report on the weekly timing signal reading.
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TSP Daily Decision Service Members:
Stocks enjoyed a strong comeback last week on the back of a series of economic reports that dispelled the idea that the economy was about to come to a screeching halt again. So, with the market deeply oversold, sentiment as negative as we’ve seen it in quite some time, and the indices sitting at the low end of the range, the better-than-expected data caused the shorts to run for cover and the overall outlook to improve.
However, it is important to recognize that while our account values have recovered nicely over the past few days, the market remains trapped in a trading range. And as such, not much has really changed from a macro point of view.
We are pleased to report that while holding long positions was very unpleasant for a while there, our models are designed to try and avoid whipsaws/overtrading in a range-bound environment. So far at least, this appears to have been the proper way to play the game over the past month and a half as our current trade is back in the black again and our models are outperforming the S&P by healthy margins.
Turning to our models, our weekly model, which attempts to “call” the direction of the action for the coming week moved into the Buy zone this week. This tells us that is okay to add to existing positions (or start new ones) – preferably on pullbacks.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
Dave Moenning
Founder TopStockPortfolios.com
P.S. For those active traders out there, the Daily Decision-PRO is now live. This new service uses options, day-trading, and swing trading with leveraged ETF’s. The "PRO" definitely isn’t for everybody, but if you are someone capable of trading aggressively in real-time, you might want to check it out. There is a 30-day free trial available as well as a substantial discount for current Daily Decision subscribers (contact us for details).
Daily Decision Weekly Model Reading
Below is the Weekly Timing Signal reading for the week:
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Daily Decision Current Positions of Models
Below is a summary of our current holdings in each of our three Daily Decision Models:
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Daily Decision Performance Results
Here are the latest performance results of all three model portfolios:
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Please see important disclosures on the inherent limitations of model portfolio results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
S&P 500 Last 12 months
About the Weekly Timing Signal
The Daily Decision Service employs two different "Timing Models" in order to help us make the decision of where (and how much) to be invested. We start each week with our "Weekly Timing Signal" which is updated over the weekend (after the computers have had a chance to crunch the numbers from hundreds of indicators). In short, the weekly signal is designed to anticipate the likely direction of the stock market during the coming week.
While the weekly signal has a stellar long-term record, the stock market has a tendency to have a mind of its own and to react swiftly to news. Thus, we depend on our Daily Model Indicators during the week to ensure that we stay in tune with the trend of the market at all times.
