The Risk Manager Report - October 24, 2012
October 24, 2012 @ 12:32 PM EST
The first step to successful investing is to identify the Market's "Big Picture" Environment in terms of risk versus reward. This is critical to success over the long term because different "environments" require different strategies. For example, in Bull Markets the objective is to maximize returns, while success in Bear Market Environments demands an emphasis on capital preservation. By reviewing the Environment every single week, we are assured that we will remain "in-tune" with conditions and not be surprised by environment changes.
At the center of our risk management work are our Exposure Models (see below). The models detail the current conditions for the Trend and Momentum of the Market and help guide us to the proper exposure to market risk.
Executive Summary For October 24, 2012
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Current Environment:
Stocks are plunging again this week, following through on a huge selloff last Friday. The main reason for the selling is clear - corporate earnings have not been very good, particularly for big name technology and industrial stocks, which raises further concerns over global growth. Light revenues and lowered guidances have been a recurring theme so far this season. Among other issues dampening sentiment is Moody's downgrade of five Spanish regions on Tuesday, speculation over tax policy with the upcoming election, and technical support failing on the major indices. While we are experiencing a brief respite from the relentless selling on Wednesday, Thursday is Apple's (AAPL) earnings announcement, which will have a large impact on where we finish off this week.
Risk Management Models Summary
Our disciplined approach to managing risk is designed to keep our Portfolios "in-line" with the major trends of the market. We strive to keep portfolios mostly invested during Positive Environments and to Reduce Exposure to Market Risk during Bear Markets and severe corrections.
We focus on our two proprietary Risk Management System Models. Both systems are robust market models incorporating the entire spectrum of market indicators. In short, our disciplined systems act as our primary guide to exposure to market risk. (For more details on each risk management system, see model summary below)
Current Readings - Risk Management Systems
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Graduated Risk Management System
Recommended Exposure to Market Risk (Short-Term): 45.00% -
Long-Term "Big Picture" Trend Management System
Current Signal: Moderately Positive
Graduated Exposure System (Intermediate Term Time Frame)
The Graduated Exposure Risk Management System is our guide to determining the appropriate exposure to market risk.
The system is a "Model of Models" comprised of of 10 independent Models. Each model includes has proved successful in its own right and gives separate buy and sell signals, which effects a percentage of our exposure to the market. Our Trend models (Short-Term Trend, Intermediate Term Trend, Trend & Breadth Confirm, and Sentiment) control a total 40% of our exposure. The 3 Momentum Models and 3 Environment Models each control 10% of the portfolio's exposure to market risk. The model's "Recommended Exposure to Market Risk" reading (at the bottom of the Model) acts as our longer-term guide to exposure to market risk.
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Long-Term "Big Picture" Trend System
Designed for Long Term Investors who do not wish to make a lot of adjustments to their holdings (i.e. 1 to 2 adjustments per year), our "Big Picture" Trend System focuses on the overall Environment of the market. The goal is to identify the "Major Trend" of the market and keep portfolios on the "right side" of the market's current cycle. The Model includes hundreds of indicators (both long term and short term) in the areas of "the tape," monetary conditions, investor sentiment, economics, valuation, overbought/oversold conditions, and industry leadership.
When the Environment is rated as "positive" (about 32% of the time) our studies have shown that the S&P has advanced at a rate of +38.4% annually. However, when a negative environment exists (about 20% of the time) the S&P loses almost -21% per year. The Model recently switched to a "Buy" signal on July 6, 2012 in response to the model registering a positive condition.
"Big Picture" Trend System
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The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of 'State of the Markets' and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Stocks should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
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The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
The information contained in our websites and 'State of the Markets' publications is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser. HCM also
