US Leading Economic Index Falls Again in June

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Economic Update: US Leading Economic Index

The Conference Board reported that their Leading Economic Index fell -0.3% in June to a reading of 95.6, which was below the consensus for a decline of -0.2% (May +0.4%)

The Conference Board’s Ataman Ozilidrim said, “The U.S. LEI declined in two of the last six months, and its six-month growth rate has eased in the last three months. The strengths among the leading indicators have become less widespread as consumer expectations and manufacturing new orders offset gains in the financial, labor, and construction-related components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index, a measure of current economic conditions, has risen slowly but steadily in the last three months.”

Ken Goldstein, an economist at The Conference Board, said, “The U.S. economy is growing very slowly. The CEI basically reflects this steady but soft pace of overall economic activity. The LEI is pointing to no strengthening over the next few months, as the economy continues to sail through strong headwinds domestically and internationally.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by +0.2% in May to 104.5 (2004=100).

About the LEI: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

Other stories on the US Economy to review:

• Housing Starts Higher, Permits Lower in June
  
• Industrial Production Above, Capacity Utilization Below Expectations
  
• CPI Shows Inflation Flat in June
  
• Empire Manufacturing Improves in July
  
• Retail Sales Disappoint in June
  
• PPI Up in June
  
• Import/Export Prices Down in June
  
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Pulls Back Again
  
• Jobs Report Disappoints Again in June
  
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Disappoints in June
  
• ADP Employment Surprises to Upside
  
• Challenger Planned Job Cuts Best in Year
  
• Factory Orders BTE in May
  
• Construction Spending Above Consensus in May
  
• ISM Manufacturing Plunges in June
  
• Chicago PMI Headline Improves But...
  
• US GDP Grew at +1.9% Rate in Q1
  
• Durable Goods Up for First Time in 3 Mos
  
• Richmond Fed Index Declines for Third Month
  
• Consumer Confidence Falls Again in June
  
• Case-Shiller Home Price Index Improves
  
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls in May

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