The Early Look: Traders Waiting on Jobs Report

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The Early Look

Here’s a brief look at the pre-market action for July 3, 2012 @ 07:38 AM

Good morning. All eyes on today's employment numbers at 8:30 am EDT, although there is widespread disparity on the estimates for jobs, but more importantly, what the market wants?

Estimates range from 35,000 added jobs to 165,000, with consensus at 100,000, which has creeped up and GS now at 125,000.

But the real issue is market implications, no matter what the number, as it relates to further indications for more QE out of the FED. Yesterday's ECB action and comments were underwhelming to the global markets.

Asian markets were mixed again, but the region was off -0.50%.

Europe is trading down again also, off about -0.25% as we write this.

The IMF's Lagarde in a speech had discouraging remarks on global growth estimates.

Italy announced further austerity budget cuts.

German industrial production ticked up better than expected.

There were comments out of the Euro zone that the Spain bank bailout may be delayed as inspectors have not yet finished their audits.

Spanish yields pressing higher again and the Euro is weaker under 124.00, as are oil futures, which are off over -1.5%.

U.S. futures down slightly, with the S&P off 1-2 points and the Dow off 5-10 as we write this, but these may change rapidly.

Again, it is very hard to speculate what the market's reaction will be today to the jobs report under either a "good or bad" scenario, with a poor report opening the door perhaps to more QE, but this is counterbalanced by the fact that major global central banks just all made announcements and any action is likely at least weeks away.

Good Trading!
David W. (aka The Underground Trader)

Pre-Game Indicators

Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...

• Major Foreign Markets:
  • Australia: -0.26%
    
  • Shanghai: +1.01%
    
  • Hong Kong: -0.04%
    
  • Japan: -0.65%
    
  • France: -0.40%
    
  • Germany: -0.35%
    
  • Italy: -0.61%
    
  • Spain: -1.27%
    
  • London: -0.01%
  
  
• Crude Oil Futures: -$1.80 to $85.42
  
• Gold: -$14.10 to $1595.30
  
• Dollar: higher against the yen and euro, lower vs. pound
  
• 10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 1.587%
  
• Stock Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
  • S&P 500: -3.13
    
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -6
    
  • NASDAQ Composite: -1.87

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