Leading Economic Index Rises in May

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Economic Update: US Leading Economic Index

The Conference Board reported that their Leading Economic Index rose +0.3% in May to a reading of 95.8, which was above the consensus for an increase of +0.1%.

The Conference Board’s Ataman Ozilidrim said, “The LEI rose in May, reversing the slight decline in April. Weakness in the average workweek in manufacturing, stock prices and consumer expectations kept the LEI from rising further. Its six-month growth rate remains in expansionary territory and well above its growth at the end of 2011, pointing to a relatively low risk of a downturn in the second half of 2012.”

Ken Goldstein, an economist at The Conference Board, said, “Economic data in general reflect a U.S. economy that is growing modestly, neither losing nor gaining momentum. The result is more of a muddle through. Continued headwinds, both domestic and foreign, make further strengthening of the economy difficult.”

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by +0.2% in May to 104.3 (2004=100).

About the LEI: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

Other stories on the US Economy to review:

• Philly Fed Plunges in June
  
• Flash PMI in US Shows Manufacturing Growth Slowing
  
• Housing Starts Down But Permits Up Strong
  
• UofM's Consumer Sentiment also Weak
  
• Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Below Expectations
  
• Empire Manufacturing Disappoints in June
  
• CPI Declines in May
  
• Business Inventories Above Expectations in April
  
• Retail Sales Fall Across Board in May
  
• PPI Shows Inflation Fell at Producer Level in May
  
• NFIB Small Business Optimism Pulls Back
  
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Above Expectations
  
• Some Good News: Employment Trend Index Moves Up
  
• May Jobs Report Disappoints Big Time
  
• ISM Report Shows Growth Slowing
  
• Q1 GDP Revised Lower

 

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