Tired of Greece? Here's the Super Bowl Facts, Figures and Fall-Out

It might be a good time to take a break from Greek debt deal fatigue and take a look at some facts coming out of the Super Bowl. As an ardent NY Giants fan, the more time we have to savor the victory, the better.

• First off, we must at least mention the obligatory “Super Bowl Predictor”. This oddball statistic, the subject of respected academic studies, shows a 75+% win rate in saying the market will be in positive territory for the year if an “original” NFC team wins the Super Bowl. Says the WSJ, “Is all this just a gadget play compared with conventional analysis of stocks? According to market analyst Robert Stovall who popularized it, repeating a favorite phrase: “The record of the Predictor is better than any package of Ph.Ds, gaggle of gurus or assemblage of analysts that I’ve ever heard of.”

• The number of chicken wings consumed on Super Bowl Sunday was estimated large enough to circle the globe two times. The Buffalo Wild Wings chain (BWLD) saw its stock soar 14% this week after reporting earnings and says it sold 7.7 million wings on Super Bowl Sunday.

• According to Reuters, “Ratings tracker Nielsen on Monday said the Super Bowl on the NBC network was the most-watched TV program in U.S. history, eclipsing the 111.0 million who watched 2011's game. An extra three million tuned in for Madonna's glitzy, Cleopatra-themed performance, giving the Material Girl the distinction of having the most-watched Super Bowl halftime show ever.”

• According to USA Today, “Las Vegas booked about $95 million in legal wagers on the game and booked a profit of about $5 million, compared to a loss of $2.5 million the last time the Giants and Patriots met in the Super Bowl in 2008.” This was the largest “handle” since 2006, but is of course dwarfed by the many billions wagered illegally, in office pools and offshore. Speaking of office pools with those 100 little boxes, by our estimate there were at least 8 reasonably possible outcomes for the final winning numbers in the last minute or so of the game. The Giants’ decision to go for 2 points after their touchdown opened up a whole set of variables in and of itself.

• Much has been made of the Super Bowl ads this year, as is every year, in terms of the winners and losers and who helped their business and who wasted their money. No need to rehash that. But we did find it interesting that the social media hype over the commercials reached record levels and advertisers spent as much if not more money advertising the ads as they did placing the ads. Jim Cramer had an interesting observation that the he thought the big winner this year was the iPhone, not for an ad they ran but for the free “product placement” as players and fans alike were shown prominently snapping photos with their iPhones after the game.

• The one ad getting the most attention was Chrysler’s Clint Eastwood “Halftime in America” spot, gaining equal share of praise for Reagan-like American inspiration and blame by many for being a thinly-veiled promo for the Obama Administration. Supposedly a lot of Chrysler dealers are resenting the commercial as it has become a hot political football and had virtually no product focus. Personally, we had more of an issue with GM’s “Apocalypse” spot which dumped on Ford. GM takes the bailout, Ford doesn’t and GM accuses Ford of not being able to survive in a post-apocalypse world? Imagery doesn’t work for us. (And supposedly did not for Ford either which reportedly asked Chevy not to run the disparaging ad).

• The fall-out of the Patriots loss was not pretty for a lot of Pats fans and they showed it in their responses. Starting with Gisele Bundchen and her profanity-laced tirade against Pats’ receivers who she thought should have caught more balls, “Tom can’t throw the (blanking) ball and catch it too!”. And then there were 1500 rioters on the campus of UMass who had to be dispersed by riot police with smoke grenades. And the several instances of very large quantities of Butterfingers candy bars being delivered to various locations in “honor” of receiver Wes Welker. And the online furor over videos of Patriot players partying hard after the game, including injured star tight end Rob Gronkowski “dancing like it was Mardi Gras.”

• But the big winners on the national stage had to be Coach Tom Coughlin and QB Eli Manning. Coughlin was that close to not coming back next year after a mid-year Giants’ losing streak before the amazing comeback and second Super Bowl victory (Coughlin became the oldest coach to win a Super Bowl). And Eli Manning may not have to ever answer questions again about being an “Elite Quarterback” and now is reported to have jumped up to the premier level for athlete endorsements, moving out of the commercial shadow of big brother Peyton. Eli also moved ahead of Peyton for the Manning family lead in Super Bowl titles, two to one. But he said: “This isn’t about bragging rights. This is a lot bigger.”

Good Trading!
David W. (aka The Underground Trader)

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