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I (Still) Like The Odds
I have reviewed the historic daily trading patterns surrounding "trigger points" of various market metrics (details later) which have also flashed "buy" signals over the past few days.
The action so far today provides me a great deal of encouragement. It appears to me that we are tracing out the type of 'down-up-down-up" pattern that was associated with the previous signal dates for a number of different studies and metrics.
It is said that "history doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme". In that vein we know that the market never does exactly repeat itself but that it does tend to repeat general patterns.
Thus, while realizing that nothing is guaranteed with regard to the equity markets or the economy, I am of the opinion that the odds are strongly in favor of a significant market bottom being put in place now. I also feel that the advance from the recent lows (assuming they are the lows) will be fairly large and certainly tradable. (Again, an opinion, not an absolute)
I am therefore strongly considering adopting the role usually taken by my buddy Dave: "Trend Follower".
And in keeping with my new role, I am now watching for a reasonable spot to jump on board the departing train.I just hope it doesn't surprisingly derail. At least not before we get at a fair distance down the tracks and I have a chance to safely jump off.
Bottom Line: I (still) like the odds.
Have a good one...
Curtis Bergquist
Options Manager: Daily Decision-PRO
S&P 500 - Last 12 Month
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