Sign Up to Receive an Email Alert when Technical Talk is Updated
Although we disagree with the idea that "the tape tells all," it is important for all traders to stay on top of key technical happenings on the charts. Below is our current "executive summary" take on the State of the Tape.
Technical Talk: April 18, 2011
Our Current Take:
I'm enjoying one of those "whatever can go wrong" type of Monday's (did the batteries in my keyboard REALLY have to die mid-trade this morning???). In short, the move by S&P has put the bears in charge. And while the chart support is not completely broken at this point, the bulls had best get their act together quickly if they have eyes on pulling this one out. For now, it looks like the correction is still "on."
We would consider being short-term buyers at: A successful test of 1300 on the S&P 500
We would consider being short-term sellers at: A close below 1294 on the S&P 500
Trend and Momentum Indicators:
Short-Term Trend: The short-term trend is now back to negative. Barring a huge reversal (hey, it could happen, right?) it looks like the bears are in control.
Intermediate-Term Trend: The intermediate-term trend remains constructive on a weekly chart but is weakening on a daily chart basis.
Market Internals: Since our TBC models are end-of-day oriented, we can only speculate that they will move to negative. However, it is a safe bet that as long as the S&P is below its 25 dma, the models will both flip.
- TBC = Trend-and-Breadth-Confirm Model
Market Momentum: Our momentum models are likely to see some damage from this morning's dive. However, the extent of the damage remains to be seen. Tomorrow's readings will be key.
Support/Resistance Zones for S&P 500:
- Current Support: 1300
- Current Resistance: 1320
Early Warning Indicators:
Overbought/Oversold Condition: The indices are now very oversold on a short-term basis and remain neutral from an intermediate-term perspective.
Investor Sentiment: the sentiment indicators remain moderately negative. However, should the mood sour from here, these models could perk up in a hurry. Stay tuned and listen to the "message" from the market.
Chart Watch:
Below are snapshots of the two main charts we watch closely each day from a technical perspective. The indicators we display on the charts below include: 50 day weighted ma (purple), 18 day weithged ma (cyan), 10 day weighted ma offset by 2 days (orange), 4 day weighted ma offset 2 periods (dashed blue) and stochastic %K using 14 and %D.
S&P 500:
NASDAQ Composite
The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of TopStockPortfolios and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Stocks should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.
The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
The information contained in our websites and TopStockPortfolios publications is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.
Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.
Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.
